When doing NFL betting, a lot of people tend to focus on either the moneyline, or the spread. But totals can be a lucrative racket if you know how to do it right, and here’s some tips for the average player who is just getting into betting online.
1) Who is playing?
Let’s take last week’s game between Detroit and New Orleans. The Saints were at home with one of the craziest offenses in the league, and they were facing the Lions, who are arguably the worst defensive team in the entire world. It didn’t really matter what the total was, you just knew that the Saints were going wild, and they have a defense that isn’t the strongest, which means picking the over was a no-brainer.
Past history
Again, let’s stick with Lions-Saints. The two met last year, in Detroit, and the Saints blasted the Lions 42-7. That was in Week 16, and there isn’t much difference between the teams, other than the Lions got younger and the Saints got healthy. Again, it was always easy to see that the Saints were in line for a romp.
Weather
Dome teams like Indianapolis and New Orleans have a big advantage when it comes to scoring points, while it’s doubtful that a cold-weather team like Chicago or Green Bay would air it out completely when it’s snowing, or even frigid. Then they tend to focus on running the ball and avoiding mistakes, which will keep the scores down (unless the run defenses are terrible).
Injuries
Looking at a matchup with injuries? Take Arizona, for example. This week they face Jacksonville, with only one of their top three receivers healthy. They have backups, of course, but unless Jerheme Urban and Lance Long turn into Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston, that offense simply isn’t going to be effective. It works the same on defense. If a team’s secondary is banged up, look for the opposition for go deep more often, which leads to more points.